I know I'm a
little out of my realm here, but I'd like to take a crack at what I feel this
election has told us.
And I also
know that postmortem thumb-sucking after such a volatile election is probably
the last thing anyone wants to read. But there's just so much going on with me
about this that I have to release it somewhere.
I understand
I'm a sports editor. Nobody's got their ear to the ground, waiting for this
report to come out. I can barely get people to listen to me when I talk about
things I might actually know something about. So why should anyone listen to me
about this?
Here's why.
Because elections don't happen as the result of bloviating "experts."
They happen because people like me spend over a year listening to commercials,
reading stories, reading literature, watching debates and speeches, and we form
our own conclusion ... not just on what the candidates say, but how they say
it, and, perhaps, why they say it.
And we vote
mainly our our own likes and dislikes when measured with, and against, what the
candidates say.
And
regardless of what anyone else says, our voice is the only one that matters. We
decide. And this year, we decided we were fed up with negativity, fed up with
meanness, fed up with the threat of undoing social progress, and fed up with an
opportunistic candidate who changed positions on important issues about as
often as you and I change our socks.
The
Republicans wanted to make this election 100 percent about the economy. They
put up a candidate with a lifetime of business experience and tried to sell us
on the idea that regardless of anything else they espoused, no matter how
vitriolic it seemed to be, Mitt Romney's knowledge about how to run a business
trumped all.
Problem is,
it didn't. And it shouldn't have.
Two weeks
ago, we had a super storm that devastated the east coast at a time when -- otherwise
-- the bloviation machine would have been spewing smoke thanks to the speed at
which it was churning. It was latest so-called storm of the century -- a
century that is only 12 years old.
Hurricane
Sandy did more than slow the campaign down. It shifted the focus onto climate
change ... an issue that had been missing from this campaign. But more than
that, it underscored the reality that within the parameters of the debate, it
was largely Republicans who scoffed at the notion of climate change and its
effects on weather.
If Sandy was
the second coming of the "perfect storm," that ripped up the East
Coast in 1991, then the Republican campaign of 2012 was a "perfect
storm" of miscalculations, missteps and missed opportunity on the part of
the Republicans.
I am an
Obama supporter and make no apologies. But outside of Jimmy Carter, there has
been no incumbent in my lifetime who was more vulnerable to being defeated than
Barack Obama. With the right approach, this could have been the type of
historic cakewalk that catapulted Ronald Reagan to sainthood in the eyes of HIS
supporters.
But the Republicans didn't think it through.
They didn't listen to themselves speak. And to many people -- especially those
who live in fear that they're going to be called into the office and told
they're an economic liability to the company -- they sounded exactly like
corporate hatchet men (and men is the operative word in an election season
where women ever-more-strongly asserted themselves). Even if they may have been
right about some of the sacrifices that needed to be made, the gave off a bad
vibe to too many voting blocs. And in the end, and for a change, those voting
blocs united and found a compelling reason to keep Barack Obama in office.
Mitt Romney
seems to be a pretty good guy. I'm sure, in his private moments, when he's not
trying to impress a particular group, he's can sound warm and compassionate,
and can connect with people as well as anyone else.
The problem
with Romney was that no matter what he said, you had to do an algebra problem
to determine what was behind it. Who was he playing to? Who was supposed to
hear it? It just never appeared that he said anything ... not even "how's
the weather?" ... that didn't have a hidden purpose or ulterior motive. He
made Eddie Haskell look sincere.
Obviously,
politics is a business rife with duplicitous creatures who would use their
right hands to sell their left hands to the devil if they thought it would get
them anywhere. But in that world, Romney stood out.
That's the
first lesson the Republicans -- if they're seriously interested in learning any
lessons -- should take from this. George W. Bush connected with the American
people because, right or wrong, he had the courage of his convictions. He
pretty much got up there and said, "this is me. Vote for me if you like me
... vote for the other guy if you don't." With Bush, to quote Bob Dylan,
you didn't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blew.
With Romney
you needed an army of them.
Today, I see
the Republican party -- at least on a national level -- about where it was in
1964 after an ideologically pure, but very conservative, Barry Goldwater lost
spectacularly to Lyndon Johnson (ironically, when Goldwater uttered that famous
remark about extremism in the pursuit of liberty not being a vice, he was
responding to accusations by Mitt's dad, George Romney, that he was too much of
a right-winger and that Republicans should repudiate what he stood for).
What did the
Republicans do? They got a whole lot more pragmatic about their ideological
purity four years later and won the White House with Richard Nixon (of ALL
people!).
Wednesday, I
could sense there were a whole lot of Republicans walking around, scratching
their heads, and wondering how it all went so wrong. A lot of Republicans I
know -- even here in Massachusetts, where the GOP has been the skunk at the
lawn party for decades -- were so confident about this.
Perhaps that
first debate gave them sufficient reason for feeling that way. It was a poor
performance by Obama. He clearly underestimated Romney's chutzpah ... his
willingness to show many faces, depending on where he was and to whom he was
speaking. Romney took him by surprise, and he had Obama back on his heels.
First impressions
last, right? Isn't that what they say? It's obviously what the Republicans
believed. If you checked into the social media sites the next day, you'd have
thought the election was over. And from that point on, Romney and GOP
supporters became more and more emboldened ... and more and more certain they'd
win.
That first
debate also signaled a change in Romney's strategy. Apparently he figured he'd
done enough to solidify the far right vote, and began working on the great
unwashed mass of undecideds (something I always thought was rather a myth ... I
don't think there were undecideds as much as there may have been luke-warm
Dems/Republicans who just couldn't warm up to either candidate, and who may
have been perfectly happy to sit this one out if not energized to vote).
He
moderated. He tried to move away from the stands he'd taken for over a year in
attempt to woo the middle ... and the people who only started paying attention
a month before the election (I don't know who that could have been ... but obviously
they thought there were such people out there).
That
obviously didn't have the desired effect. Romney's people banked on an
electorate that would remember the last thing it heard. It got an electorate
whose memory was a lot longer, and that remembered all the other stances too.
And if there were moderates out there who took umbrage at the unmitigated gall
of Romney's pandering, you can also bet there were hard-core conservatives who
had always been doubtful of Mitt's "credentials," and who perhaps
felt betrayed by his shifting policy positions. And who, perhaps, stayed home
on Nov. 6.
There were
some other circumstances that, in the end, worked against Romney rather than
for him ... as he (and the GOP) might have thought.
I'm sure the
Republicans considered the Supreme Court's vacation of the clause in the
McCain-Feingold act of 2002 that prohibited corporations and unions from
financing independent political ads a victory. And as much as the Democrats may
have squawked about that decision (and squawk they did) both parties took
advantage of their new freedom to accept ads financed by corporations and PACs.
I refer, of
course, to Citizens United and its lawsuit that resulted in overturning the
McCain-Feingold provision.
This may
have been a bonanza for the Republicans for the reason that most corporations
tend to favor the policies that the party supports. You don't see very many
liberal CEOs.
But buckets
full of money generally mean more negative, more vitriolic ads and that's what
we got. In spades. It was an exceptionally long, nasty and expensive campaign.
And I don't know ... maybe enough people got exasperated by all the vitriol
that they reacted by blaming the party they felt was more responsible. And
since it was largely Republicans who seemed to support Citizens United, the
onus -- especially in the swing states where the electorate isn't all knee-jerk
GOP or Democrat -- fell on them.
It's just a
theory. But in all of this, I'm beginning to see that the prevailing word that
would perhaps describe this election is "backlash." I see this
election as a jigsaw puzzle, because that's often what elections are. Certain
pieces of it end up being the keys to the whole puzzle. If you find a home for
one piece, it's amazing how many other pieces of the puzzle come together.
It's almost
like "connect the dots." For example, the GOP's Mitch McConnell, the
Senate Minority Leader, very publicly vowed to make Obama a "one-term
president." From a minority position, he and the Republicans abused the
filibuster system so badly that if the president nominated someone for Dog
Catcher in Jerkwater County, Florida, it never got to the floor.
When Scott
Brown ran against Martha Coakley for Ted Kennedy's seat (after the senator
died), there was a great deal of Republican action flooding into Massachusetts.
Why? Not because Scott Brown was uniquely qualified to be a U.S. Senator, but
because Brown would have given the Republicans better leverage with which to
use the filibuster. Conversely, Obama -- at a moment where the Republicans and
the Tea Party had been relentlessly beating the drums of discontent over
Obamacare -- had to come in and try to bail Coakley out. The results were
disastrous for the Democrats.
But the
Republicans apparently forgot that the vanquished often live to see another
day. Nixon rose from the dead. And when they loudly ran Elizabeth Warren out of
a relatively minor position in the Obama cabinet, that gave her the impetus to
run for the U.S. Senate in Massachusetts and defeat Brown.
In other
words, and once again, the Republicans were done in by their own hubris and
bravado.
Now, if you
measure McConnell's state objective -- which was to make sure Obama was
defeated in 2012 -- and measure it against all the foot-dragging on the part of
the Republicans over the last four years, what do you get? You get a trend. You
get an electorate that may be slow on the uptake sometimes, but that is smart
enough to understand the difference between an honest and loyal opposition and
a group of obstructionists who don't necessarily have its best interests in
their hearts.
They
remember these things ... and when it comes time to respond, they do.
There was
backlash over the Tea Party. In Michigan, Northern Ohio (which carried Obama to
victory in that state) and other industrial regions that proved the difference
between blue and red, auto workers who undoubtedly remembered Romney's
exhortation to "let Detroit go bankrupt" spoke at the ballot box.
Latino
voters who heard Romney stake out a position on immigration that seemed to
embody the worst kind of Xenophobia spoke at the ballot box. It's been said
that the Latino voters represent the fastest-growing constituency. Obama
carried it with almost 70 percent of the vote.
Abortion ...
veiled threats to do away with Roe v. Wade (from which Romney later backed off)
... threats to repeal the president's health plan ... Senators Aiken's remark
about "legitimate rape" and candidate Mourdock's view that if a woman
conceives out of rape, it's God's will ... threats to cut off funding of PBS
(and stupidly invoking "Big Bird" into the discussion) ... a binder
full of women ... these all resonated with different groups of people the
Republican didn't think they needed to win the White House.
But they
were wrong. The Republicans DID need them.
It's not a
given that Romney was necessarily on the wrong side of some of these issues.
It's more the dismissive way he stated his case that perhaps turned people off.
That crack about the "47 percent" killed him. It gave Obama a
wide-open palette to paint the less attractive side of being a venture
capitalist against the backdrop of the remark. And until the president pulled his
no-show in debate No. 1, that was working marvelously.
Time and
time again, Romney gave the president the mallet with which Obama gladly
clobbered him. And, really, isn't that a cardinal truism in politics? That
there are times when you're going to get hit over the head, but that doesn't
mean you have to provide people with the mallet to do it? There were times in
this campaign that Romney was practically passing the mallets out.
We see the
jigsaw puzzle start to come together. The insensitivity (or seeming
insensitivity, perhaps) to some of the needs of that 47 percent hurt him with
every demographic except white males (whose numbers in support of him were
higher than even Reagan's). Twenty years ago, Romney might have won this
election going away.
But it's not
20 years ago. It's now. African-Americans, women, Latinos, young people who
don't necessarily have strong ties to organized religion (and who are
graduating from college in droves with poor job prospects), didn't necessarily
appreciate being seen as moochers by someone who was successfully branded as a
bloodless plutocrat who threw people out of work for the sole purpose of
turning a profit in a business he'd just taken over.
They feared
that the social safety net that at least promised to catch them if they fell
would, instead, be pulled out from under them. Honest, hard-working people need
social safety nets too. And those hard-working people spoke with their ballots.
They feared
that the stampede of socially conservative and unduly judgmental right-wingers
would crush any legitimate social progress we've made.
They heard
one too many coded racist remarks ... saw one too many belligerent ads ...
heard one too many hysterical exhortation that Obama "hates this
country" ... had their intelligence insulted too often by the notion
floated by Republicans that we should be somehow farther along in recovering
from an economic recession (one that the president inherited from a Republican
predecessor who fought two wars via credit card) more serious than anything
since the Great Depression. And that the fact we aren't was Obama's fault.
They saw a
party, and a candidate, that seemed to encourage the people in this country who
could afford to help the most when it came to contributing toward bringing us
back from the financial cliff to, instead, pull back and refuse to put forth
any more monetary effort to rescue a system that had served them so well ...
and for so long. And they spoke.
I mean,
seriously, all anyone one was asking was, "hey, help out a little!"
The spectacular refusal to do so was, in a word, astounding. And, as we've now
seen, the backlash was severe.
They all got
up and spoke on election day ... all the growing demographic constituencies who
are, just now, picking up enough steam to influence the national agenda. And obviously, their take was different. They
saw a president who spent much of his four years in office trying to tame a
beast that wasn't very easy to tame. And to them, he succeeded. The wolf may
not be vanquished, but he's not howling at the door as loudly as he was in
2008.
The reality
of politics is this: Every president, governor, mayor, congressman, senator,
selectman ... all of them ... have something in common with the Wizard of Oz.
If you pull back the curtain, you see a fallible human being who is far from
capable of pulling off half of what they promise ... and, for that matter, half
of what their opponents accuse them of doing. There's just no way. I think one
of the ways incumbents have the advantage when it's time for re-election is
that they ARE sadder and wiser. I didn't sense the unbridled joy of 2008 with
Obama. He didn't radiate hope and change. But what he did radiate was the
wisdom of having learned, through four bitter years, what kind of a game this
really is at this level ... what he could do and, more importantly, what he
couldn't do.
I hate to
say it, but running for governor of Massachusetts, and winning, is like hitting
.350 in Double-A ball. The varsity is a whole new experience, and nobody --
regardless of what they may claim -- is truly ready for it.
Obama's
advantage, for better or worse, is that he was. He may have gone drawn the
collar and whiffed four times in the first debate, but he was wise enough to
know he'd have another day. He didn't panic. If the same thing had happened to
Romney, he may have been toast, because he didn't have any reservoir of
experience from which to draw.
Obama may
have had a hard time handling the slings and arrows of a sluggish economy. But
he handled the slings and arrows of a rough campaign better than Romney did.
The saddest
thing -- at least from a Republican viewpoint -- is that this was a very
winnable election ... and for all the reasons they repeatedly pounded home. The
economy IS sluggish. Unemployment IS stubbornly high. Obama wasted so much
political capitol getting his health care plan passed that he didn't have any
left to lead on other thorny issues. There were many times when it appeared
that he was being led, as opposed to being the one leading.
He was/is
far from perfect. He has his own problems with being (or seeming) remote and
out of touch. And he has his own problems trying to connect with people who
aren't on board with much of what he stands for.
In another
election, and with a political organization a bit quicker on the uptake on the
country's ever-shifting demographics, Romney may have won.
But the GOP
played to its base. And unlike in past years (even as recently as Bush II),
that base is shrinking.
Conversely, Obama's campaign understood those
shifting demographics. Not only that, the Obama campaign won this election with
arithmetic. It carved out the proverbial "path to 270" by
understanding just what it needed to do. And it understood that for the first
time in quite a while, the melting-pot diversity that defines the Democrat
party had finally reached the point where it counteracted the traditional GOP
base.
What does
this all mean? It means a divided government for the foreseeable future. The nationwide
demographic that thrust Obama into power doesn't exist state-by-state, and
since much of the middle of the country is Republican, we won't be seeing a
one-party legislature anytime soon. We may see more of this: the Democrats
winning on the national level (at least until the Republicans can catch up with
the shifting constituencies) and the GOP winning house and senate seats.
This
election was not strictly about the economy. It was about a collection of
divergent voting blocs that rose up and created a profound backlash against a
party that not only didn't seem to care about them, but seemed seemed
absolutely oblivious to their existence.